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☆ Stock market today: Stocks jump on cooler April inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose as traders took in slightly cooler inflation figures. Consumer prices rose 3.4% year-per-year in April, down from the prior month's 3.5% increase. Still, investors have muted expectations for Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders took in the latest inflation report, which showed prices cooled slightly in April. Falling inflation has fueled some hope the Fed is set to issue several interest rate cuts this year, which is bullish for stocks.

Persons: —, Seema Shah, Sonu Varghese Organizations: Service, Treasury, Asset Management, Traders, Carson Group

☆ 5 indicators that show the US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP growth in the first quarter. "The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown," Varghese said. AdvertisementThe US economy is firing on all cylinders despite a slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth, according to Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese. These are the five indicators that give Varghese confidence that the US consumer, and therefore the US economy, remains on solid footing. Income growth is outpacing inflationDespite elevated inflation, wage growth continues to outpace inflation growth, and that's ultimately a boon for consumers.

Persons: Sonu Varghese, there's, Varghese, that's, That's, " Varghese, here's Organizations: Carson, Carson Group

☆ Stock futures rise after Apple reports, traders look to April payrolls data: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 212 points, or 0.55%. S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced about 0.5%. In extended trading, Apple advanced more than 6% after it announced a $110 billion share repurchase and a top -and bottom-line beat. The S&P 500 popped 0.91%, while the Dow gained 0.85%. The S&P 500 is off by 0.7% week to date, while the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.6%.

Persons: Cloudflare, Dow, Jerome Powell, Sonu Varghese, payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Biotech Amgen, Dow, Carson Group Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Where investors might hide out if inflation continues to reaccelerate
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

To guard against stubborn inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates, investors should focus on quality companies with high pricing power and adjust their duration risk in bonds, according to Wall Street strategists and portfolio managers. Pricing power Companies with high pricing power tend to outperform when inflation is elevated because they have the ability to defend their profit margins by passing along higher costs to their end market customers. "In equities, you should prefer companies that have pricing power, i.e. "When inflation is the predominant risk in markets, correlations between stocks and traditional bonds tend to be high. BlackRock's iShares strategy team recently argued that investors should take advantage of spikes in bond yields while they can and reinvest their cash.

Persons: Stocks, Brad Conger, Sonu Varghese, Jason Pride, Pride, Rick Rieder Organizations: Dow Jones, Treasury, Street, Callaghan, Co, Big Tech, Carson Group, Securities, U.S ., Glenmede Trust Locations: Hirtle, BlackRock

☆ The March inflation data lowered rate cut expectations. Here's why stocks could take that in stride
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors had lately been hoping the Fed might start easing back on policy starting in June, with three rate cuts penciled in for the year. But a robust labor market, as reflected in last week's March payrolls, and this latest consumer inflation data have pushed back that view. Markets now anticipate the first cut might come in September, with just two quarter-point reductions for the whole year. Even so, investors anticipate that markets may be able to take fewer rate cuts in stride so long as the Fed isn't actually forced to raise rates. Varghese still leans toward equities, expecting as many as three rate cuts this year, though he anticipates the first cut might not come until July now.

Persons: Federal Reserve doesn't, Stocks, isn't, Ayako Yoshioka, Yoshioka, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, Powell, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Carson Group, CPI

☆ Stock futures fall ahead of big tech earnings and Fed meeting decision: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Dow Jones and S&P both hit all time highs with the Dow Jones closing over 38,000 points for the first time ever as stocks continue to rise. U.S. stock futures fell across the board Sunday night as Wall Street looked toward several mega-cap tech earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's rate policy decision. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 86 points, or 0.2%. This week marks the busiest week of the earnings season, with 19% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings. Traders in the fed funds futures market assigned an almost 97% probability the Fed will not cut rates at the upcoming meeting, according to the CME Group.

Persons: Dow Jones, Tesla, Sonu Varghese Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Dow, Boeing, Merck, Federal, Traders, CME, Carson Group Locations: New York City, . U.S

☆ 2 recession indicators are close to flashing. Here's why investors can still rest easy for now.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Two recession indicators are on the verge of flashing as the unemployment rate ticks higher and the yield curve uninverts. "With labor supply increasing, we're not sure the Sahm rule, even if it triggers, would really be indicative of a recession." AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two recession indicators that are on the verge of flashing, but even if they do flash stock market investors can rest easy. Last month, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up 50 basis points from its cycle low of 3.4% in April. "That's why a small increase in the unemployment rate can be really bad news, because it keeps going," she explained.

Persons: we're, —, Carson, Sonu Varghese, Sahm, Claudia Sahm, Varghese Organizations: Service, CNBC, Treasury

☆ U.S. Job Growth Slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The number was lower than experts had projected, and it signaled a cooling in the economy, but it remained not far off from the monthly job growth that the U.S. was experiencing before the pandemic. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9 percent from 3.8 percent in September. In addition, the previous two jobs reports were revised downward by a total of more than 100,000. “This is mildly concerning but for now, these are still strong numbers,” said Sonu Varghese, a market strategist at Carson Group. The signs of recent cooling reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold off on further interest rate increases.

Persons: ”, Sonu Varghese Organizations: Carson Group, United Automobile Workers, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ U.S. employers added 150,000 jobs last month, falling short of forecasts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“This is mildly concerning but for now, these are still strong numbers,” said Sonu Varghese, chief market strategist at Carson Group, an asset management firm. The October numbers may have been held down because the survey was taken during major work stoppages — notably the strikes by the United Automobile Workers and related layoffs. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. Some 96,000 people reported being out of work because of a strike or labor dispute in October, the most since 1997. But she added that unemployment would have to tick higher over a longer horizon for it to be clear that recession risks were heightened.

Persons: ”, Sonu Varghese, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Carson Group, United Automobile Workers, Federal Reserve

☆ A spike in gas prices is one of the biggest risks to the stock market and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

One of the biggest risks to the stock market and economy is a gasoline price shock, according to Carson Group's Sonu Varghese. Gas prices are already up 23% year to date, and a further rise could reaccelerate inflation. His big worry is that surging gas prices can have a negative knock-on effect on the broader economy. That's because higher gas prices at the pump weigh heavily on consumer sentiment and can lead to curtailed spending. While he remains bullish on the outlook for the stock market and economy, he does worry that another gasoline price shock could serve as a big headwind for investors and consumers.

Persons: Carson Group's Sonu Varghese, Sonu Varghese, that's, Varghese, there's Organizations: Service, Carson Group, Energy Information Administration, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, Russia, Ukraine, Louisiana

☆ Stock futures are little changed after a third straight winning day on Wall Street: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also both hovered around 0.1% higher. The moves followed a third consecutive winning session on Wall Street as investors made up some ground at the end of the month. The S&P 500 rose about 1.5%, notching its best performance since June. The Nasdaq Composite is poised to end August 2.8% lower, while the Dow and S&P 500 are both slated for drops of around 2%. Jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, followed by data on nonfarm payrolls, wages and the unemployment rate on Friday.

Persons: Dow, Tuesday's, Dow Jones, Sonu Varghese, Brown, Forman, Daniel's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Conference, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Treasury, Federal, Carson Group, Dow Locations: New York City

☆ Here's why the surge in bankruptcy filings this year isn't as scary as it sounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Corporate bankruptcy filings have surged so far this year, already eclipsing the number of bankruptcies in 2022. But there are three reasons why bankruptcy filings aren't as scary as they sound, according to Carson Group. But according to Varghese, there are three reasons why investors shouldn't panic about the recent uptick in bankruptcy filings. But bond investors — even those who buy below-investment-grade debt — have not shown signs of worry. "Bond investors typically sniff out hard economic times for companies well ahead of other investors.

Persons: it's, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, —, Banks Organizations: Carson Group, Service, Bed, Valley Bank, Party, Treasury, Carson, Federal Reserve, Entrepreneurship Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 'No sign of a recession': 3 signs suggest the US economy is so strong it may not even cool to a soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

These are the three signs that suggest the economy's strength means it doesn't have to worry about sticking the landing. "Not only do we see no sign of recession, but it also doesn't even look like the economy is looking for a 'landing' at this point," Varghese said. Looking at the last three months of economic data, Varghese highlighted three data points that suggest the economy is likely to remain stronger than many expect and ultimately avoid a recession. Retail sales rose at an annualized pace of 4.7% in the second-quarter, and retail sales excluding vehicle and gas station sales rose at a 6.3% annual pace. Taken altogether, the data suggests to Varghese that the US economic growth reaccelerated over the past year.

Persons: Carson Group's Sonu Varghese, Carson, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, it's Organizations: Carson, Federal Locations: Atlanta

☆ The housing market suggests that the US economy dodged the recession bullet and is poised for more growth ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recent strength in the housing market suggests the US economy may have dodged a recession, according to Carson Group. Housing starts surged nearly 22% in May while building permits also rose, indicating builders are confident about demand. "Housing historically bottomed prior to the end of a recession and has typically led the economy out of one." That's a big deal because weakness — not strength — in housing starts data has historically foreshadowed recessions. Housing starts measure the groundbreaking of a foundation and precedes sales of new homes as well as spending on home goods and appliances.

Persons: —, Sonu Varghese, They're, Varghese Organizations: Carson Group, Housing, Service

☆ The dollar's dominance on the world stage isn't going away. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The move makes sense, given Russia's growing status as a pariah state, but it also highlights a push to unseat the dollar as a dominant force in global trade. But to strategists at the Carson Group, a scenario where the dollar isn't the world's primary reserve currency simply isn't in the cards in the near future. Are you convinced that the dollar won't lose its status as a dominant global reserve currency? Some companies in this batch of oil stocks have upsides of up to 180%, according to strategists at Bank of America. An expert from the World Gold Council pointed out that history says gold performs well in a recession.

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